How To Pick Winning Penny Stocks

Penny stocks. as the name suggests, are stocks of those companies that trade with a low share price, often less than $1. Given such a low share price, there is an understandable draw for retail investors who dream of buying 10-cent shares and seeing them rise to ten or more times that sum. But before dabbling into penny stocks, an investor should note several key factors that affect the way these stocks trade and to have a solid understanding of the inherent risks that follow. (For more, see: The Lowdown on Penny Stocks .)

Share Price and Valuation


When share price is the only factor taken into consideration, a retail investor might think that the quality of the firm trading at $100 is much higher than the one trading at $0.10. As we’ve seen in the example, this may not always be the case since they are identical so it is important to consider the number of shares available. (For a better understanding of this topic, see: The Basics of Outstanding Shares and the Float .)

Beware Dilution

Another factor to be conscious of when trading penny stocks is dilution. The number of shares outstanding can often balloon out of control through the use of tools such as employee stock options. share issuance in order to raise capital and stock splits. If a company issues shares to raise capital, which many small companies need to do, then it can often dilute the ownership percentage held by other investors. For example, if Company A issued an extra 110,000,000 in an effort to raise capital then it's natural that the share price would decline to $0.09 ($.09 keeps the market cap steady at $100 million). In this case, the underlying business hasn’t changed, but the number of shares has, which has caused the share price to drop.

When trading penny stocks it is important to find a company that as a strong grasp on its share structure because consistent dilution erodes the value of the shares held by existing owners. (For further reading, see: The Dangers of Share Dilution .)

How to Spot a Winner

Most companies that trade with share prices under a dollar have relatively small market capitalizations. but as shown above this doesn’t always have to be the case. When it comes to investing, it is important to consider the strength

of the company’s fundamentals. Does the management team rely on issuing new shares to raise capital? Is the company profitable or will it be able to turn a profit based on its current business structure? Can the company compete in its sector? For those willing to do their homework there are definitely gems that can be found that meet these criterion. (For more, see: Penny Stocks Explained .)

As you can see from the monthly chart of General Growth Properties, Inc. (GGP ), the company’s share price got battered down into penny stock range during the financial crisis of 2008. For those who don’t follow the company, GGP owns, manages, leases and redevelops real estate such as regional malls in the U.S. Investors who kept an eye on the share structure, underlying fundamentals and competition could have identified GGP as a prime candidate and profited from a tremendous rise in the years that followed.

Another key factor to consider is that certain sectors are more common for finding stocks that trade under a dollar. For example, the metals and mining sector is well-known of the number of companies that trade in the pennies. Given the reliance on issuing new shares to raise capital to fund operations, increased competition and aggressive incentive plans it's particularly important for investors to pay attention to the factors mentioned above in order to be successful. For those willing to do their homework, you’ll be able to identify winners such as HudBay Minerals, Inc. (HBM ), which transformed itself from a micro-cap to the $2.5 billion entity that it is today. (For more, see: The Stock Market: Winners and Losers .)

The Bottom Line

When most retail traders look at a penny stock they often ignore underlying fundamentals, such as the number of shares outstanding. As is the case with all investing, it's important to examine a company’s underlying fundamentals and overlay this information with details, such as how badly the shares are being diluted through the use of stock splits, stock options and issuing new shares to raise capital. Share dilution hurts existing shareholders and it's particularly common with penny stocks. Keeping an eye on the share structure and other fundamental factors mentioned above will help investors find winners, such as HudBay Minerals and General Growth Properties. (For more, see: Spot Hotshot Penny Stocks .)


Category: Forex

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