A primer on how FootballLOCKS .com makes NFL football picks using its backwards odds handicapping of Las Vegas NFL football lines & point spreads; in an effort to uncover possible indications in the line as to which teams NFL odds making experts & insiders might potentially think have an edge to cover the spread.
Backwards Odds NFL capping Starts With Questioning Methods That Seem Like They Should Work Well For Making Expert NFL Game Picks, But Rarely Seem to Perform:
When most NFL football handicappers embark on a mission to make their best weekly NFL picks, they call upon the typical NFL stats coupled with their general knowledge of pro football to try to determine which team has the best chance to cover the Vegas NFL spread in a given game. But many times they end up disappointed with the performance of their NFL expert picks. And are left to wonder why their pro football handicapping techniques weren't able to turn up consistent winning NFL picks.
Get ready for a theory about relying on stats, trends, general football knowledge, and other publicly known NFL betting information to make NFL predictions to try to beat your friendly neighborhood Vegas sports book out of its money. It may not be the best way to make winning football picks versus Las Vegas NFL betting lines. NFL Vegas odds makers have access to just as many stats football betting information as anyone. Yet this is how most football gambling beginners and NFL handicappers make their NFL gambling picks.
It's no wonder few so called best online betting sites seem to produce enough winning NFL betting picks to beat Las Vegas odds over the long haul. Yet more and more sports handicapping services are popping up everyday. Keep reading for more NFL odds making information.
To make enough winning NFL football selections to compete with Las Vegas football lines over the long run, it may be necessary to analyze Las Vegas football lines in reverse to attempt to match the perspective of Las Vegas sports odds makers who specialize in understanding how the money flow of the sports betting public as well as insiders can potentially affect NFL lines.
Matching the perspective of Vegas odds makers is something we endeavor to do at FootballLOCKS .com using our football betting method whereby Las Vegas NFL betting odds are attempted to be "reverse engineered" in an effort to logicize the origin of the line and why it has landed on a certain number value at your favorite Las Vegas sportsbook.
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With Backwards Odds capping, instead of looking at Las Vegas football lines for a given week and then making football predictions about which teams may cover the line, FootballLOCKS .com first looks backwards in an effort to determine why the football line for a given game has been set at a particular number value, why the line may have been adjusted to a particular value, and why a particular NFL line may have been maintained at a particular odds line value at various Las Vegas sportsbooks.
How did the NFL football line originate? Why is this line the way it is?
This is the FootballLOCKS .com approach to making selections. This method may also be applied to making other sports picks as well. So by analyzing the line in reverse; a "reverse engineering" football handicapping system, we're potentially able to do a couple of things that might increase the chances of identifying pro football betting picks with a greater probability of winning than without such an NFL handicapping method:
1) Shift the focus away from using NFL stats and general public football gambling information to make NFL football predictions.
2) Redirect focus towards potentially finding indications in the Vegas NFL line that may help identify which team in a given game NFL football odds makers could potentially think has the better chance to cover the NFL game spread.
Indications in Las Vegas NFL Football Lines & Point Spreads Are What We're Attempting to Find in an Effort to Potentially Identify Which Team NFL Odds Makers & Insiders Might Possibly Think Has a Better Chance to Cover the Line in a Given Games:
By thinking in Backwards Odds NFL football handicapping terms, a whole new light is shed on the pursuit of wagering on football. You're probably not going to find this kind of NFL football betting thinking at any other online NFL gambling resources. Beware of any self proclaimed, best online sports betting information portals pirating FootballLOCKS .com's NFL betting concepts.
If you bet NFL football with any kind of regularity, it may be worth your while to make such consideration before betting NFL football games in any given week. However, most who bet football probably use 99% of their time trying to find the best NFL football betting odds. And while that's a good idea when betting on NFL football games, they're probably not even considering the implications of why various football odds lines are priced a certain way. In our opinion, that's a risky way to engage in the art of betting football. Even many professional NFL cappers will issue their best NFL football bet of the week without even thinking about the line. We think that's no way to operate a so called top gambling site devoted to NFL football betting online when NFL capping customers are serious about winning money betting on football, attempting to bet on football for a living.
Handicapping NFL & Backwards Odds:
We believe the key to using this NFL handicapping system is to take the position that Las Vegas' NFL odds lines and NFL point spreads are the oddsmakers' instrument for dividing the monetary betting action in half for a given NFL game, or in any other percentage break up they may desire.
Consider that by receiving even amounts of football bets on opposite sides of NFL games, Vegas for example on an $11 NFL bet to win $10 can keep $11 from the losing bet while paying out $10 on the winning NFL bet, thereby pocketing $1.
By setting NFL odds and NFL lines at values designed to generate even football betting activity or "money flow," Vegas can eliminate its risk for loss while maximize its chances of generating a profit based on a percentage of the total money flow on the game. Hence most would agree the purpose of Vegas' NFL football betting lines is to control the money flow by influencing the NFL sports betting populations' NFL wagering decisions via use of the betting line.
If you like to bet on NFL football, this may potentially be the type of NFL sports betting information that makes sense to consider before betting on NFL football games each week.
At any rate, here comes a further bit on the above NFL handicapping angle that you may not find at any of the so called best online sports gambling sites.
Las Vegas NFL Football Odds - A Sophisticated Tool Which Could Potentially be Used to Influence the Weekly NFL Game predictions of NFL Bettors and Pro Football Handicappers:
The very existence of NFL lines and point spreads potentially gives Las Vegas NFL oddsmakers an element of control over how the general sports betting population may decide to bet on NFL in a given game. We doubt many an NFL handicapper knows to ask if they are making a given NFL pick because the NFL Vegas odds actually influenced their decision to make that selection through the use of setting and moving various NFL point spreads and NFL football betting odds to potentially balance the action.
As mentioned the line on a game is generally considered the oddsmakers' assessment of what particular NFL football odds line number value will split the money flow from the market of NFL bettors wagering on a given game. Therefore it's important to note that NFL lines are not the oddsmaker's expected differential in the final score on a given game.
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In order to use to potentially reverse engineer NFL lines and possibly uncover top betting ideas, it may be important to understand how Vegas odds makers use NFL betting lines to divide the money flow in half.
Are you ready to take a further glimpse into the inner workings of NFL Las Vegas odds makers and NFL point spreads?
How NFL Odds Makers May Use Pro Football Odds and Pro Football Point Spreads to Keep NFL Betting Action Divided in Half.
Las Vegas' odds makers are experts at using NFL lines and point spreads to keep betting action divided for Vegas' profit purposes. By making adjustments to any given line or point spread odds makers may be able to sway NFL bettors to wager on NFL teams that have less betting action. Ask yourself, how often when gambling on NFL football have you been undecided on a game with a 3 point spread only to make your football bet after the line moved down to 2 1/2 or up to 3 1/2. Perhaps you weren't going to bet the NFL game at all. The movement in the line was Vegas effort to control the money flow. The movement in the NFL spread can have a direct result on the general publics' pro football betting decisions.
Of course, when NFL lines and point spreads are moved, it can also sway sports bettors who have already placed an NFL bet on a game to lay down additional bets on that game. Or to even reverse their direction and bet the other way to try to "middle the game" and win both football bets. But as far as Vegas' odds makers are concerned, keeping sports betting action split at each sports odds line number (NFL money odds number) or point spread in general is the key. Doing so allows Vegas to make its expected profit from sports gambling operations.
So by flexing mastery over NFL odds and NFL lines Las Vegas odds makers potentially can have an amazing amount of control over amounts that get wagered on various football games. However, before NFL odds makers can even begin to work the line, they must choose a starting point or "opening Vegas line" for the NFL game.
The Goal Of Odds Makers When Creating Vegas' Opening NFL Lines and Point Spreads:
When creating opening lines, the incentive for Vegas' odds makers is to choose football lines that will do a fast, efficient job of splitting the money flow or controlling the direction of the herd. If an opening line doesn't draw even action, the sooner the line can be adjusted to draw even action, the more profit Vegas can line up for itself, if indeed Vegas wants even action for that given game.
Phrased another way-- the more a line needs to be adjusted to keep betting action even, the more overall risk Vegas is exposed to, and the lower the profit Vegas stands to make. This is because Vegas can get stuck with uneven betting action
from those that bet on NFL football for any given NFL odds line or NFL point spread number, which could cut into profits assuming Vegas sports books want even action for a game.
Therefore, you can see that Las Vegas' NFL odds makers would be very interested in knowing what specific NFL point spread number or NFL odds line number would draw even betting action for a given game before having to release the opening line for that game to the public.
But before odds makers could know what an opening line on a given game would need to be set at to draw even football betting action, NFL football odds makers would want to know in advance how much money NFL bettors would bet on either team at various NFL spreads for that game, in advance of the game. This brings us to the Las Vegas oddsmakers' greatest strength when it comes to using betting lines and point spreads to control NFL bet action (and possibly the greatest weakness of a inexperienced NFL football handicapper).
The oddsmakers' greatest strength for dividing action and the direction of NFL bets is based on the fact that most who bet NFL football make their betting decisions by relying on some level of information they have collected about the matchup, most likely from general public sources. To cope, Las Vegas odds makers have likely developed techniques to allow them to measure the level of sports betting information that prospective sports bettors know about a given game before having to create and release the NFL opening line for that game.
One method NFL odds makers may potentially use to measure the NFL football gambling information level known about a game to those who bet football is to release an exclusive "unrefined" test line or NFL early line for select knowledgeable and well respected gamblers or "Vegas insiders" to bet into.
For inside gamblers who have access to these "unrefined" NFL early lines, it's like having access to easy money. Because if the betting line ends up being far off from the test line, the game can be sandwiched by insiders for a potential double hit at Las Vegas sports books.
But it's well worth it for Vegas to give these insiders the middling opportunity. Because by allowing select insiders an exclusive opportunity to place NFL wagers against early NFL test lines, NFL Vegas odds makers get a chance to determine whether or not select insiders are betting the same side in a game, whether insiders are split, and how strongly insiders feel about their selection in terms of money flow/the size of their NFL football bets.
Collecting NFL betting info about the size of various NFL bets so that Vegas can know how insiders are weighing their moves on given game helps the odds makers make an assessment of what the opening NFL line will need to be set at in order to generate even betting action from the combination of insider NFL handicapping experts and general public NFL bettors for a given game.
Another reason odds makers may provide insiders with early NFL test lines is because insiders place bigger football bets (which are harder to balance), plus insiders can at any moment have access to more relevant information about a given game than anyone else.
For example, insiders may potentially know:
- what types of strategies the teams plan to use (not what teams state publicly)
- whether or not the teams involved are emotionally ready to play
- who is officiating the game and what affect that may have on the teams' playing styles
- whether the starting center has a blister on his index finger or big toe
Hence, Backwards Odds NFL Handicapping begins with making considerations about the opening NFL lines with respect to various teams involved in the game. This is the first step to potentially reverse engineer Las Vegas' NFL spreads and betting odds.
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So now you have an idea of how FootballLOCKS .com performs its pro football handicapping. To us it's not the teams that matter most. It's not the stats that matter most. It's the line on the game that matter the most. The line on the game potentially shows that NFL insiders and odds may possibly know something the NFL betting public doesn't. But how can one extract such possible indications from the line to make expert NFL weekly picks? How can one pinpoint which teams NFL football odds makers and insiders might be thinking have an advantage to cover the pro football point spread? That's where our Backwards Odds Handicapping attempts to come into play to examine NFL lines in reverse.
Using Backwards Odds NFL Handicapping to Potentially Reverse Engineer Las Vegas NFL Odds and Point Spreads in an Effort to Find Games With a Higher Probability of NFL Bet Success:
With insiders potentially in possession of non-publicized pro football betting information and Las Vegas football odds makers potentially in possession of the tools needed to measure the level of such info, the general NFL betting public may potentially be in a disadvantaged position when it comes to betting NFL games. The common person interested in betting football games may not have a clue as to how such information may possibly affect Vegas NFL football lines or their NFL bets. NFL bettors and even unknowledgeable handicappers who don't consider the formation of Vegas NFL lines may be positioned to lose money quickly betting on pro football.
Consider the following progression of a hypothetical NFL matchup where unpublicized information may exist:
The opening NFL lines are released at a number that entices the general public to bet NFL teams opposite of what insiders may be betting on. The money bet on various NFL football teams by the uninformed public counters the money bet by insiders keeping the action even. Football insiders go on to win the majority of their NFL bets. And the general public losses the majority of their football bets. It may happen time and time again to people betting NFL football who don't understand how to read the lines.
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Unreleased information on a game may also potentially manifest itself to NFL insiders after the opening line has been set. In such cases, the line may once again be adjusted, potentially to entice the general NFL wagering public to bet on the lower probability or disadvantaged team to balance action. Of course, the football is an odd shaped ball, and anything can happen in any given game. Consider an insider with unpublicized information who bets on a given football game. There is no guarantee that game will win whatsoever. Anything can happen on that NFL field. Something to consider when betting on sports at a Las Vegas sports book.
At any rate, should any of this be considered unethical? Not really. After all, access to information is not illegal in sports. And it's not the oddsmakers' duty to report what they may or may not know about a given game.
But it is the oddsmakers' duty to set the line at a number that draws even action. If they didn't, Las Vegas sportsbooks couldn't consistently make any juice and you wouldn't be able to bet on sports. So if inside information or an inside read potentially exists, oddsmakers may simply react by setting the line at a number that balances action, even if it means the possibility of enticing the public to bet sports teams that they may perceive as being disadvantaged. Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas' NFL betting odds attempts to pinpoint such games.
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Get subscription access to FootballLOCKS .com and see if increases the success of your NFL bets. People who insist on picking games on their own may be at risk to experience a reduction in their chances of winning sports bets as they could be enticed into betting games with seemingly favorable odds, when there might be non-publicized information stacked against them. Simply stated, by ignoring indications in the line, you're possibly at risk to continue to lose more football bets like some people betting on NFL football do. Meanwhile, FootballLocks.com endeavors to assess if Las Vegas NFL lines are possibly being driven by non-publicized information and/or by the public's NFL betting money.
An Edge For Uncovering Winning Football Bets?
Examining the NFL line. Whether or not such game deciding info may exist in a specific game may potentially be determined by an analysis of the NFL Vegas line for that given game. Of course there is no guarantee that you are going to win any given NFL bet made using such possible line indications. Beating Vegas' NFL odds and point spreads over the long run is complicated by the presence of juice.
Limiting yourself to Backwards NFL odds handicapped predictions for betting on NFL games may potentially put you on the the winning side with a higher frequency compared to using typical techniques employed by other NFL handicappers and sports picks services that may not work versus Las Vegas NFL lines, such as worrying about which NFL team is supposedly better.
Getting NFL Sports Betting Picks Made Using Backwards Odds Handicapping of Vegas NFL Lines:
Are you ready to get weekly selections made using Backwards Odds Handicapping of Las Vegas NFL betting lines in an effort to potentially win more pro football bets?
FootballLOCKS .com is the pioneer of Backwards Odds Handicapping for NFL football bet selection. See if you can improve your NFL betting success. Of course there are no guarantees. The football is a funny shaped object that can bounce any way, regardless of how strongly someone may feel about a release. Attempting to extract betting information from the NFL line contains risk as does any form of sports betting.
One final note:
It is advisable to never wager on NFL football with any amount of money that would be unaffordable if lost.
Make FootballLOCKS .com your NFL handicapper. The pioneers of backwards odds capping of Las Vegas pro football lines. Again there are no guarantees of success and money can be lost betting on sports picks.
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